USDA Releases 2012 Crop Production Report
USDA Crop Production 2012 Summary - Jan 11, 2013
Corn for grain production is estimated at 10.8 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the November 1 forecast but 13 percent below 2011. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 123.4 bushels per acre. This is up 1.1 bushels from the November forecast but 23.8 bushels below the 2011 average yield of 147.2. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 87.4 million acres, down slightly from the November forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
Soybean production in 2012 totaled 3.01 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the November 1 forecast but down 3 percent from 2011. United States production is the seventh largest on record. The average yield per acre is estimated at 39.6 bushels, 0.3 bushel above the November 1 forecast but 2.3 bushels below last year's yield. Harvested area is up 3 percent from 2011 to 76.1 million acres and is the third highest on record.
Sorghum grain production in 2012 is estimated at 247 million bushels, down 4 percent from the November 1 forecast but up 15 percent from 2011. Planted area is estimated at 6.24 million acres, up 14 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain, at 4.96 million acres, is up 26 percent from 2011. Average grain yield, at 49.8 bushels per acre, is down 1.3 bushels from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from last year.
All cotton production is estimated at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month but up 9 percent from 2011. The United States yield is estimated at 866 pounds per acre, up 73 pounds from the December 1 forecast and up 76 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 9.43 million acres, is down 10 percent from last month and down fractionally from last year.
Rice production in 2012 is estimated 199 million cwt, up slightly from the previous forecast and 8 percent above 2011. Planted area is estimated at 2.70 million acres, up slightly from 2011. Area harvested, at 2.68 million acres, is up 2 percent from the previous crop year. The average yield for all United States rice is estimated at a record high 7,449 pounds per acre, up 32 pounds from the previous forecast and 382 pounds above the 2011 yield.
USDA Grain Stocks - Jan 11, 2013
Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 8.03 billion bushels, down 17 percent from December 1, 2011. Of the total stocks, 4.59 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 26 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.44 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2012 indicated disappearance is 3.74 billion bushels, compared with 3.84 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 1.97 billion bushels, down 17 percent from December 1, 2011. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 910 million bushels, down 20 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.06 billion bushels, are down 14 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2012 totaled a record high1.22 billion bushels, up 30 percent from the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 1.66 billion bushels, down slightly from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 400 million bushels, down 1 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.26 billion bushels, are up slightly from a year ago. The September - November 2012 indicated disappearance is 445 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Durum wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 61.0 million bushels, up 27 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 36.7 million bushels, are up 50 percent from December 1, 2011. Off-farm stocks totaled 24.3 million bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2012 indicated disappearance of 7.44 million bushels is down 53 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Barley stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 158 million bushels, up 14 percent from December 1, 2011. On-farm stocks are estimated at 72.6 million bushels, 31 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 85.3 million bushels, are 2 percent above December 2011. The September - November 2012 indicated disappearance is 38.9 million bushels, 8 percent above the same period a year earlier.
Oats stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 73.1 million bushels, 8 percent below the stocks on December 1, 2011. Of the total stocks on hand, 26.0 million bushels are stored on farms, up 4 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 47.1 million bushels, down 13 percent from the previous year.
Grain sorghum stored in all positions on December 1, 2012 totaled 139 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 17.3 million bushels, are down 38 percent from December 1 last year. Off-farm stocks, at 122 million bushels, are down 1 percent from a year earlier. The September - November 2012 indicated disappearance from all positions is 131 million bushels, up 44 percent from the same period in 2011.
USDA Winter Wheat Seedings - Planted Acres Up 1 Percent - Jan 11, 2013
Winter wheat: Planted area for harvest in 2013 is estimated at 41.8 million acres, up 1 percent from 2012 and 3 percent above 2011. Seeding began last August but by the middle of September was behind the 5-year average as producers waited for improved soil moisture levels. However, by the end of October, seeding had progressed ahead of last year and the 5-year average. More acres were seeded this year due to the early row crop harvest and higher prices.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is about 29.1 million acres, down 2 percent from 2012. Acreage changes from last year are mixed across the growing region. Growers in Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas planted significantly more acres this year while large acreage decreases occurred in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, and the Dakotas. Widespread drought conditions and lack of moisture continues to be a concern across much of the HRW growing area.
Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area is about 9.42 million acres, up 16 percent from last year. Increases from last year are estimated in most SRW growing States with North Carolina producers seeding a record high area.
White Winter wheat seeded area totals nearly 3.27 million acres, down 2 percent from 2012. Planted acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) is down from last year. Planting got off to an average start but by the middle of October was behind the 5-year average in all three States. By November 13, seeding was virtually complete in the region.
Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2013 harvest are estimated at 170,000 acres, down 31 percent from 2012 and 15 percent below 2011. Planting has progressed well in both the San Joaquin Valley and Imperial Valley. No major problems with the crop have been reported.
USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Update - Jan 11, 2013
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 38 million bushels this month. Feed and residual use is projected 35 million bushels higher as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate higher-than-expected disappearance during September-November. Seed use is raised 2 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings. Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged; however, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of SRW wheat in world markets. All wheat imports are also unchanged, but small adjustments raise projected HRW wheat imports 5 million bushels and reduce Hard Red Spring wheat and Durum imports by a combined 5 million bushels. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $8.15 per bushel, based on prices reported to date.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly lower based on reduced production prospects in Argentina and lower reported production in Russia. Argentina production is reduced 0.5 million tons with lower expected harvested area and yields. Heavy December rains have increased expected area losses and harvest reports also suggest lower-than-expected yields. Russia production is lowered 0.3 million tons based on the latest government reports that reduce yields slightly.
Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are reduced slightly. Projected exports are lowered 0.5 million tons each for Argentina, Australia, and Canada, but raised 0.5 million tons for Russia and 0.2 million tons for Ukraine. Imports are raised 0.2 million tons for Iran. Feed and residual use for Russia is lowered 0.5 million tons as available domestic supplies tighten. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected slightly lower with increases for Australia, Canada, and Iran mostly offset by reductions for the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.
U.S. 2012/13 feed grain supplies are increased slightly with higher corn production more than offsetting a reduction for sorghum. Harvested area for corn is lowered 346,000 acres, but a 1.1-bushel-per-acre increase in the estimated yield boosts production 55 million bushels. Sorghum harvested area is nearly unchanged, but a 1.3-bushel-per-acre decrease in the estimated yield lowers production 9 million bushels.
Projected corn use for 2012/13 is raised with higher expected feed and residual disappearance more than offsetting reduced prospects for exports. Feed and residual use is projected 300 million bushels higher based on September-November disappearance as indicated by December 1 stocks and on higher expected beef, pork, and poultry production. Corn exports are projected 200 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and increasing pressure from larger supplies and exports for South America. Corn ending stocks are projected 44 million bushels lower at 602 million. The season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel. While stiff competition has limited U.S. corn exports, higher domestic disappearance leaves the balance sheet historically tight and is expected to support continued strong and volatile prices well into summer, particularly in the domestic cash markets.
Other 2012/13 feed grain changes this month include increases in projected sorghum, barley, and oats feed and residual disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are projected 35 million bushels lower with feed and residual use projected up 50 million bushels. Oats exports are lowered 1 million bushels, based on the pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average sorghum farm price is raised 20 cents at the midpoint to $6.70 to $7.90 per bushel. The barley farm price is projected down 5 cents at the midpoint to $6.10 to $6.70 per bushel on lower reported prices for malting barley. The projected oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.60 to $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting the larger U.S. corn crop and increased corn production for South America. Paraguay corn production is raised 1.1 million tons on a higher projected yield, which is in line with historical yield and production revisions this month. Brazil corn production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher expected yields with favorable December rainfall across the southern growing areas. Argentina corn production is raised 0.5 million tons as lower harvested area is more than offset by higher expected yields. Heavy rains and flooding in November and December delayed planting and reduced area prospects. Since then, clearing weather, the absence of threatening heat, and abundant soil moisture have set the stage for strong year-to-year yield increases, particularly in the central growing region. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output of 0.5 million tons for Russia and 0.1 million tons each for the Philippines and Serbia. Changes for Russia and Serbia reflect the latest government estimates. The smaller expected crop in the Philippines is based on the latest assessment of typhoon damage in December.
Changes to 2012/13 global coarse grain exports, in the aggregate, are small this month, but increases in 2011/12 and 2012/13 local year corn exports for South American countries have substantial implications for U.S. corn exports during the 2012/13 September-August marketing year. Exports for Argentina are raised 0.5 million tons for 2011/12 and 1.0 million tons for 2012/13. Exports for Brazil are raised 0.5 million tons for 2011/12 and 1.5 million tons for 2012/13. With the local marketing years in both of these Southern Hemisphere countries running from March through February, increases in both years weigh against U.S. export prospects for 2012/13. Similarly, in Paraguay, where the local marketing year runs from January through December, corn exports are boosted 0.6 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, for 2011/12 and 2012/13, also reducing prospects for U.S. corn exports during the current marketing year. EU-27 corn exports are also raised 0.5 million tons for 2012/13.
Global corn consumption for 2012/13 is raised 5.6 million tons mostly on the increase in U.S. corn feeding this month. Consumption is raised slightly for Paraguay, but lowered slightly for Russia and Serbia. Global corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.6 million tons lower with lower expected stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Stocks are raised for Paraguay with the larger projected crop.
U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is estimated at 92.7 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and peanuts are partly offset by reductions for canola and cottonseed. Soybean production is estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area. The soybean yield is estimated at 39.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean crush is raised 35 million bushels to 1.605 billion bushels reflecting higher projected domestic soybean meal consumption and increased soybean meal exports. Soybean meal domestic consumption is raised in line with projected gains in meat production, especially for pork and poultry. Soybean exports are unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 135 million bushels, up 5 million from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production, exports, and ending stocks.
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average soybean price is lowered 30 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $13.50 to $15.00 per bushel. The soybean oil price is forecast at 49 to 53 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, down 10 dollars on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 465.8 million tons, up 2.8 million due to increases for soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is projected at 269.4 million tons, up 1.7 million with gains in the United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting record area and improving yield prospects. Higher projected yields are the result of favorable moisture throughout the center west and southern growing areas. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 million mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive moisture throughout much of the central growing area. Other changes include increased cottonseed production in China and Australia, and increased sunflowerseed production in India and the United States.
Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 115.3 million tons, up slightly from last month. Increased soybean exports for Brazil are offset by a comparable reduction for Argentina. Higher soybean meal exports mainly reflect increases for the United States and China. Soybean meal consumption and imports are projected higher for several countries including Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Iran. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.6 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month as reduced soybean stocks in Argentina and China are only partly offset by higher stocks in Brazil and the United States.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting greater beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised from last month based primarily on heavier carcass weights. USDA will release its Cattle report on February 1, providing an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention in 2013 and feeder cattle availability. USDA's December 28 Quarterly Hog and Pigs report estimated that the pig crop for the last half of 2012 was about the same as 2011, while indicating producers plan to farrow 1 percent fewer sows the first half of 2013 relative to 2012. However, continued growth in pigs per litter in 2013 is expected to more than offset the decline in intended farrowings. Coupled with slightly higher expected carcass weights, the 2013 pork production forecast is raised from last month. Broiler production is raised as higher forecast broiler prices and lower forecast soybean meal prices are expected to enhance sector profitability. Hatchery data are pointing toward higher-than-previously forecast production and bird weights have increased. Turkey production is higher based on current hatchery data and expectations of lower soybean meal costs. The egg production forecast is raised on hatchery data. Estimates for 2012 beef and pork production are raised slightly based on late-year production data, but the estimates for poultry are unchanged.
The forecast for beef exports in 2012 is raised based on recent trade data but is unchanged for 2013. The import forecast is lowered for both 2012 and 2013 as global supplies of beef are expected to remain relatively tight. Pork export forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are raised from last month based on expected greater availability of pork and continued firm demand. Broiler export forecasts in 2012 and 2013 are unchanged from last month. Turkey export forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are higher this month.
Cattle prices for first-quarter 2013 are raised, reflecting current demand conditions for fed cattle. Hog prices for 2013 are forecast lower based on larger expected hog supplies. Broiler prices for 2013 are raised from last month on expected demand strength. Turkey prices are lowered as production is forecast higher. Egg prices are lowered from last month. Prices for 2012 are adjusted to reflect reported December estimates.
The milk production forecast for 2012 is increased based on a slower decline in cow numbers and greater output per cow in the fourth quarter. Milk production for 2013 is raised as the decline in cow numbers is dampened from last month. Fat-basis imports for 2012 and 2013 are raised on higher butterfat and cheese imports, but skim-solids imports for 2012 are reduced on lower casein imports. Fat-basis exports are unchanged for 2012, but the forecast for 2013 is raised on greater expected cheese and whey sales. The estimate for 2012 skim-solids exports is reduced on lower nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports but the forecast for 2013 is raised.
Butter and cheese prices for 2013 are lowered based on current price weakness and weaker expected demand. NDM and whey prices for 2013 are forecast higher on current price strength. The Class III price forecast is reduced as lower forecast cheese prices more than offset the higher whey price. The Class IV price is lowered as the forecast decline in butter prices more than offsets higher NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.85 to $19.65 per cwt. Product and milk prices for 2012 are adjusted to reflect reported December estimates.
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