Cattle market makes another day of new highs except for December. Will this strong trade continue? Firmer cash market last week. Rumors we might see the Holcomb KS plant open earlier. Average weights are above a year ago. Lower grain markets. Year ago today March Corn 2nd largest crop…but still at the same price today. How much did the USDA WASDE glitch effect the markets?
WASDE report. How valid were some of the results in Re-surveying North & South Dakota Harvest weather going into next week. Open interest in the cattle-could we see some buying & is there in a top going in. Planting progress in South America.
New lows in the corn on a Thursday as markets set up for the Friday WASDE Report. China continues to play a role in the markets both on the soybean & hog side of the trade. Demand for corn isn’t good, cattle crazy with export increases on the way.
WASDE Report, lower grain numbers, yield potentials for corn & beans. Politics moving into push on trade & USMCA. hogs from down from their limit up trade.
Is markets getting sick of the China situation. Beans still see some strong demand & fresh Brazilian planting. Is Brazil working to take away more markets from the United States? Cattle market is setting up for some volatility in the markets. Hogs undervalued on a global sector.
Corn harvested was 52% and soybeans harvested was 75% as of Sunday, Nov. 3, according to this week’s USDA NASS Crop Progress report. Overall harvest is steadily continuing, but is still well behind. Northern states exemplify this with North Dakota only at 10% complete 50% behind the five year average. Missouri and Minnesota are the last two states that have yet to break 60% complete of soybean harvest.
Winter wheat was 89% planted, 71% emerged and was rated 57% in good-to-excellent condition.
To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/….
Clay Patton has more on the report here:
|National Crop Progress Summary|
|Winter Wheat Planted||89||85||83||88|
|Winter Wheat Emerged||71||63||69||74|
|National Crop Condition Summary|
|(VP = Very Poor; P = Poor; F = Fair; G = Good; E = Excellent)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
|National Soil Moisture Condition – 48 States|
|(VS = Very Short; SH = Short; AD = Adequate; SR = Surplus)|
|This Week||Last Week||Last Year|
Weather in South America. WASDE report a week away. How will markets go heading into next week. China another hold. Basis harvest pressure heading into the weekend. Could a soften be happening. What we are seeing in the dollar trade & its effects on the grain & livestock market. Class 3 milk prices have had some excitement this week. Vertical move higher in cattle market. Beef packer margins continue to be strong as does exports. Smart Money-no selling on this rally-does this mean there is more of a rally to go? Brazilian Cattle prices.
Just days after Kansas farmer Dennis McNinch completed corn harvest, he went to Michigan to testify at a public hearing on EPA’s proposal to address how it will account for ethanol waivers granted to refineries in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). McNinch represented the Kansas Corn Growers Association at the hearing on Oct. 30. He serves on the National Corn Growers Association’s Corn Board and is chairman of the Kansas Corn Commission.
The hearing kicked off a public comment period on EPA proposal, which is open until Nov. 29. Farmers are encouraged to submit comments online at kscorn.com/action.
“I went to Michigan to testify because EPA needs to know how these decisions affect corn farmers in Kansas,” McNinch said. “They need to hear from more farmers, and we can all do that by taking a few minutes to submit comments online at the kscorn.com website.”
At issue is EPA’s proposal to account ethanol demand lost through EPA refinery exemptions going forward in the RFS. The recent expansion of RFS waivers has reduced RFS requirements by more than 4 billion gallons over three years. However, EPA’s proposal uses a formula that would return just half of the actual waived gallons to the 2020 RFS and doesn’t provide certainty for future years. EPA proposes to base its formula on the amount the Department of Energy (DOE) recommended in waivers, instead of the amount EPA actually waived. Because EPA consistently waived nearly double the gallons the DOE recommended, the proposal using DOE numbers to redistribute future waived gallons is half of what the President committed to in early October.
McNinch said in his testimony:
“Earlier this month, the President announced that he intended to see to it that the EPA would adhere to the 15 billion gallon annual ethanol blending requirement as set out by the RFS, and that starting in 2020 the waived gallons created by the SRE’s would be reallocated using a three-year average of the actual waived gallons granted by the EPA. This was great news to our industry. Then, just a few days after the President’s announcement the EPA came out with a different formula using a three-year average based upon the DOE’s recommendation. This proposal falls short of what I heard the President say and still does not ensure that the 15 billion annual ethanol blending requirement is met, thus putting the agriculture economy at risk.
My request today is simple, please follow the spirit and intent of the RFS. If your agency is going to grant waivers to the small refiners, please make sure that those waived gallons are reallocated back into the fuel supply as originally suggested by the President. Our industry needs stability, meeting the annual RVO requirement of 15 billion gallons of ethanol blended into our nation’s fuel supply would be a great start.”
The Kansas Corn Growers Association is asking corn farmers to submit comments on EPA’s proposal and tell EPA to keep the RFS whole. Comments can be made through the Kansas Corn’s online portal at kscorn.com/action.
What are the current factors that the market is watching currently?
Corn and soybean yields
South American Weather
Chinese Trade Talks
2020 Marketing decisions on seed purchases
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Harvest delays, South America crop progress, the latest on China-as conference has been suspended. What is in the deal & what isn’t. Market is taking it in stride call us when its done. Private estimates on crop progress will come out on Friday. In holding a pattern. Fed statement-how does that effect the trade. ASF. Rally in the cattle market.