Tag Archives: corn

USDA expects farmers to harvest a record 15.3 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall, with a national average yield of 181.8 bushels per acre (bpa), which is also a record, according to its first Crop Production report of the season.

Soybean production is estimated at 4.42 bb with a record national average yield of 53.3 bpa.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Wednesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bearish for soybeans. Meanwhile, the world ending stocks estimates were neutral-to-bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for increased production offset by lower imports, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Imports are lowered 10 million bushels this month to 130 million on the larger HRS supplies. Estimated food use for 2019/20 is lowered fractionally to 962 million bushels, based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Food use for the 2020/21 market year is lowered 4 million bushels to 960 million as food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million on lower production for several key competitors, most notably the EU. With offsetting supply changes and increased use, ending stocks are lowered 17 million bushels to 925 million. If realized, these will be the lowest wheat ending stocks in 6 years. However, the season-average farm price is decreased $0.10 per bushel to $4.50 on lower U.S. corn prices and reduced wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year. 

Foreign 2020/21 wheat production is lowered 3.7 million tons led by a 4.0-million-ton reduction for the EU, and 1.0-million-ton reductions each for Kazakhstan and Turkey. These changes are partially offset by a 1.5-million-ton production increase for Russia and a 1.1-million-ton increase for Brazil. The production changes are based on updated harvest results and government estimates. 

Global beginning stocks are raised 3.8 million tons, reflecting several mostly offsetting changes as well as a 3.5 million ton increase for the EU, which is based on multi-year revisions to both use and stocks. Foreign consumption is lowered 1.3 million tons, led by a 1.0- million-ton reduction for EU feed and residual use based on the smaller crop. Global exports are lowered fractionally with several offsetting changes including a 1.5-million-ton cut for the EU, and a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, both on reduced production. These are offset by a 1.5-million-ton export increase for Russia, based on increased supplies, and a 0.7-million-ton increase for the United States. With global use down more than supplies, world ending stocks are revised 2.0-million-tons higher to a record 316.8 million tons. 

 

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota. Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending WASDE-603-2 stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel. 

Sorghum production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with the yield 9.1 bushels per acre above last month’s historical median yield. Sorghum exports are raised reflecting an increase in the expected amount of shipments to China. 

This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries including Poland, Italy, and Hungary. Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand. Barley production is lowered for the EU, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and Ukraine. 

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include corn export increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Burma. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada, and Thailand, but reduced for India. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and Argentina, with higher imports forecast for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative to last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India. 

 

RICE: The outlook for U.S. rice in 2020/21 this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as lower production is only partially offset by increased beginning stocks and imports. The initial surveybased production forecast for the 2020/21 crop year reduced production from the previous forecast by 2.6 million cwt to 218.1 million, all on lower yields. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,600 pounds per acre, down 89 pounds from the prior forecast but up from last year’s 7,471 pounds. Long-grain production is forecast at 159.1 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 59.0 million. Projected all rice imports are raised 1.4 million cwt to 36.0 million as the robust import pace seen in 2019/20 marketing year is expected to moderate only slightly in 2020/21. Imports for 2019/20 are forecast at a record 36.7 million cwt as they are also raised this month on continued large Asian shipments. All rice exports for 2020/21 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 97.0 million with all of the reduction for longgrain on continued South American competition in Western Hemisphere markets. Projected ending stocks are raised to 44.3 million cwt, up 0.5 million from last month and 44 percent higher than last year. The 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $12.70 per cwt, compared to last year’s $13.10. 

The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, lower consumption and trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.6 million tons to 681.7 million, primarily on reduced production forecasts for China, Thailand, and Vietnam. China’s production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 147.0 million on record rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley during June and July causing severe flooding and reducing harvested area. Production for Thailand and Vietnam is reduced on decreased irrigation availability with low reservoir and river levels. Despite these reductions, 2020/21 world production remains record-high at 500.0 million tons. Global consumption is reduced by 1.9 million tons to 496.5 million, still a record, primarily on reductions for China, Brazil, and Nigeria. World trade is decreased 0.6 million tons to 44.3 million tons, mainly on export reductions for Thailand and China but remains well above last year’s 41.5 million. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 185.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 63 and 21 percent of the total, respectively. WASDE-603-3 

 

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning stocks and higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced on a small increase in 2019/20 soybean crush. Soybean production is forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from last month and is 5.9 bushels above last year’s level. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at a record 5.1 billion bushels, up 13 percent from last year. U.S. soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2.13 billion on increased global import demand, increased supplies, and lower prices. Soybean crush is also raised, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 610 million bushels, up 185 million from last month. 

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $8.35 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent. 

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Partly offsetting higher U.S. production, foreign oilseed production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 479.6 million, mainly on lower rapeseed and sunflower seed crops. Rapeseed production is lowered for Ukraine and Kazakhstan while sunflower seed production is lowered for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. 

Global 2020/21 soybean trade is raised 3.9 million tons, with higher exports for Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. This is parallel to higher imports for China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India. Soybean crush for China is raised 3.0 million tons to 98.0 million in 2020/21, but soybean meal equivalent (SME) protein growth is unchanged from last month at 5 percent due to oilseed meal consumption changes in the prior year. With higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use, mainly in China, global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 95.4 million. Other notable changes include higher 2020/21 peanut production for India on the rapid planting pace and higher 2019/20 Malaysian palm oil production on recent monthly output strength. 

 

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2020/21 is increased by 131,777 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1.4053 million. Beet production is increased 198,840 STRV on increases in forecasts made by NASS for crop yields in sugarbeet-producing States. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 30,000 STRV based on processors’ forecasts published in Sweetener Market Data. Cane sugar production in Texas is decreased by 54,000 STRV to 81,000 on the NASS forecast of the cane yield decreasing to 21.9 tons/acre as a result of Hurricane Hanna. Imports for 2020/21 are lowered slightly, mostly on FTA sugar allocated for the 2020 calendar year entering the United States earlier in 2019/20 than forecast last month. Beginning stocks are reduced by 28,281 STRV on lower 2019/20 beet sugar production and lower imports stemming mostly from a 50,000-STRV reduction in estimated high-tier tariff imports. With no use changes, ending stocks increase to 1.788 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.6 percent. 

Mexico sugar supply for 2020/21 is reduced by 221,680 metric tons (MT) to 6.896 million. Production for 2020/21 is reduced 100,000 MT to 6.0 million based on reports of long-term drought effects on sugarcane planted area. Beginning stocks are 121,680 MT lower based on an increase in 2019/20 deliveries from an unexpected jump in the pace over that estimated last month. Ending stocks for 2019/20 now represent about 2.2 months of expected use in 2020/21, down from the usual policy target of 2.5 months. For 2020/21 ending stocks are still projected at 2.5 months of anticipated use in the following year. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are projected to absorb all of the reduction in 2020/21 supply. WASDE-603-4 

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2020 forecast for total meat production is lowered slightly from last month as decreases in pork production more than offset higher beef and poultry production. Higher beef production largely reflects a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and lighter carcass weights for the year. Broiler and turkey production reflect June production data; no changes are made to forecasts for the outlying quarters. The 2020 egg production forecast is raised on hatchery data. For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast is unchanged from the previous month on offsetting changes in beef and broiler production. The 2021 beef production forecast is reduced from the previous month as lower expected placements in the first half of the year will be reflected in lower forecast slaughter in the second half of 2021. The 2021 broiler production forecast is raised from last month on lower feed costs. Pork and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. The egg production forecast is raised from last month. 

For 2020, beef imports are raised on recent trade data and firm demand for imported processing grade beef. The beef import forecast for 2021 is also raised. The 2020 beef export forecast is decreased slightly on recent trade data. The 2020 pork trade forecast is adjusted to reflect June trade data; no changes are made to the 2021 forecasts. The 2020 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data and continued slow import demand from a number of trading partners. The 2020 turkey export forecast is adjusted to reflect June data; the 2021 forecast is unchanged. 

Fed cattle prices for 2020 are raised from last month on current price strength. The first-quarter 2021 fed cattle price forecast is raised, but the annual forecast is unchanged from last month. The 2020 hog price forecast is lowered on recent price pressure, but the 2021 price forecast is unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2020 is raised fractionally on a higher forecast third quarter price. Forecasts for 2021 are unchanged. The third-quarter turkey price forecast for 2020 is raised; no change is made to the 2021 turkey price forecast. The 2020 egg price forecast is reduced on recent price weakness and supply pressure. Egg price forecasts for 2021 are also reduced as large supplies are expected to weigh on the market. 

The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month as higher expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets slightly lower dairy cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on continued strong demand for imported butter. The fat basis export forecast is raised on increased shipments of cheese and butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and a number of other dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher exports of dry skim milk products. Cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are reduced from last month. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese prices, while the Class IV price forecast is reduced on lower butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.95 per cwt. 

For 2021, the milk production forecast is reduced on slower growth in cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecast is raised on more competitive cheese and butter prices. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on continued strong international import demand for skim milk powder. Price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month, while the whey forecast is increased. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced as the lower cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price forecast. WASDE-603-5 The Class IV price forecast is reduced on a lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is unchanged at $17.05 per cwt for 2021. 

 

COTTON: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast. The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations. Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019. With reduced harvested area in the Southwest, U.S. yield is projected at a record 938 pounds/acre, 14 percent higher than in 2019. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales as lower than expected 2019/20 U.S. mill use offsets an upward revision in exports. Expected 2020/21 mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, while ending stocks are 800,000 bales higher. The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month. 

This month’s 2020/21 world cotton outlook includes higher production, and ending stocks, but lower beginning stocks, consumption and trade. World production is 1.3 million bales higher as lower production in Mali and Greece is more than offset by increases for India, the United States, and Australia. Expected 2020/21 world consumption is 1.2 million bales lower this month, with declines in India, China, Pakistan, Brazil, and Indonesia offsetting gains for Bangladesh and Turkey. Imports are projected lower in Pakistan, Indonesia, and India, and higher in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Malaysia. This month, 2020/21 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million bales higher than the previous month and 4.4 million bales higher than in 2019/20. 

NOTE: The U.S. production forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of August 1. Any potential impacts from severe weather that occurred after August 1 will be reflected in future reports. 

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. 

Summary

The bulls finally made an appearance in most markets midday. Equities were able to climb higher as stimulus is back in the air. US inflation also seems to be coming back with the latest data out  Wednesday morning showing consumer price index moving from 0.4% in June to 0.6% in July.

Precious metals hit a wall and saw sharp profit taking start Tuesday. Wednesday gold and silver were trying to recover some of those losses. The drop in metals seems to be tied to a rise in treasury yields. On Monday the 10 year Treasury note held a premium of just 0.5%, but by Wednesday morning that had rallied to nearly 0.7%. Treasury notes hold more value to safety seeking investors where they are guaranteed a small return on their money.

The WASDE report held mixed reviews, but corn and soybean futures were able to rise after the report. Trend line yields did as they were expected and came in at record levels. Corns trend line yield was 181.8 bushels per acre. That is a decent jump from the July reports 180.5 bushels per acres. Soybean Trend line yield came in at 53.3 bushels per acre, well above pre-report estimates of  51.2 bushels per acres.  Ending stocks were also closely watched, but for the 2020/21 corn ending stocks they came in lower than expected at 2.756 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates were 2.8 billion bushels and the July WASDE estimated 2.648 billion bushels.

 

Outside of the data midweek there is also a fundamental story trying to build in the grains after strong winds ripped across Eastern Nebraska, Iowa and Western Wisconsin on Monday. The strong winds called a derecho were as strong as an inland hurricane and left plenty of destruction in their path. Social media is filled with photos of destroyed grain bins, equipment shed and down row crops.  The WASDE report listed that the data presented was compiled as of August 1st and would not reflect any weather or other impacts to the crop.

The Monday crop progress report showed a small decline in the national corn conditions, which is common this year. Soybeans improved another 1%, which could place more pressure on the market.

USDA has announced flash sales the first three days of the week. The first sale on Monday was 111,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 20/21 marketing year. The second 324,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for the 20/21 marketing year. This helped to bolster soybean buyers throughout the day. Tuesday saw a lone sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 20/21 marketing year. Wednesday saw two sales, 258,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown. Both sales were for the 20/21 marketing year.

Tuesday morning FOB soybean prices at the US Gulf were 68 cents cheaper than comparable prices in Brazil.

USDA export inspections for last week were also strong for corn (1.15 MMT) and soybeans (635,665 MT). Looking at year ago levels though both grains are well behind.

USDA on Monday also reported 264,000 MT of soybeans received for delivery to China for the 20/21 marketing year.

The latest ethanol data from the EIA Wednesday showed ethanol production dropping for the 2nd straight week, down 1.4%, or 13,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 918,000 b/d

Ethanol stocks also dropped by 2.9% to 19.8 million barrels, which was 17.3% below year-ago volumes and the lowest level since the last week of 2016. Inventories thinned in the Midwest (PADD 2) and Gulf Coast (PADD 3) but increased across the other regions.

US China tensions are still very hot and continuing to grow. China has placed sanctions on 11 U.S. citizens in a tick for tack response to U.S. sanctions on 11 Chinese officials in Hong Kong. China also arrested Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai over the weekend under new security laws. This will likely invoke a response from the U.S. and may be part of the reason for the swiftness in Lai’s arrest.

The livestock sector ended mixed to mostly higher on Wednesday. Lean hogs caught another round of selling on the open, but were able to find support in the WASDE report. Pork production in the 3rd quarter is expected to be 7.17 billion pounds. That is down just slightly from the July WASDE report. Beef production is expected to increase slightly in the 3rd quarter to 7.06 billion pounds. Mike Zuzolo pointed out in his midday market commentary though that World Outlook and USDA expect the US to import more processing grade beef to try and meet rising demand for hamburger. The average fed steer price in the 3rd quarter is expected to be $108.16.

In the country a light trade was reported in parts of the South on Wednesday at mostly $104 (with a few up to $105), $4 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Asking prices remain firm around $106 plus in the South, and $168 to $170 plus in the North.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction today listed a total of 890 head in Kansas and Texas only, with 602 actually sold, 288 head listed as unsold, and 0 head listed as PO (Passed Offer). The state by state breakdown looks like this: KS 531 total head, of which 457 head sold at $104 to $104.50, that left 74 head unsold; TX 359 total head, of which 145 head sold at $104.50, that left 214 head unsold. The delivery date/weighted averages breakdown is as listed: 1-9 day delivery: 562 head total, of which 348 head sold, with a weighted average price of $104.50; 1-17 day delivery 328 head total, of which 254 head sold, with a weighted average price of $104.27.

For the week ending August 01, 2020, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 43,077, 93.36% of the previous week and 104.88% of the 4-week average.

Expected Slaughter numbers Wednesday

Cattle

117,000 hd today 119,000 hd wk ago 115,339 hd yr ago

 

Hogs

474,000 hd today 475,000  hd wk ago 483,545 hd yr ago

 

Midday Carcass Value Wednesday

Beef

Choice up 0.56 208.64

Select up up 1.62 196.64

C/S Spread 12.00

Loads 99

Pork

Carcass up 0.49 70.88

Bellies dn 5.49 104.66

Loads 199

 

Grain Settlements

  • Corn up 1 1/4 – 3 3/4
  • Soybeans up 6 1/4 – 12 1/2
  • Chicago Wht dn 2 3/4 -3 3/4
  • Kansas City Wht dn  3/4 up 1

Livestock Settlements

  • Live Cattle dn 0.05 up 1.70
  • Feeder Cattle up 0.17 – 1.47
  • Lean Hogs dn 0.32 up 0.30
  • Class III Milk dn 0.11 up 0.14

Pre-Opening Market Broker Commentary

Mark Gold, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today. Strong winds ripped across Iowa on Monday. This could mute some of the data coming out this week.


Jerry Stowell, Country Futures,  looks at what may impact the livestock futures today. Equities moving higher could help start cattle higher.


Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes a look at the midday trade. The WASDE is out and Zuzolo believes it was ending stocks rather than yield forecasts that caught traders attention.


John Payne, Daniel’s Ag Marketing, takes a closer look at today’s grain close. Following the WASDE data Payne doesn’t see enough supply damage from the derecho to cause a rally in corn.


Jack Fenske, York Commodities, looks at the closing market numbers. Fenske is not expecting to see a friendly report on Wednesday.

  • Weather that moved across the Midwest
  • USDA WASDE on Wednesday
  • Positioning with the report
  • ProFarmer Crop Tour
  • Reaction to the weekly crop progress report
  • Other currencies vs. the U.S. dollar
  • Turnaround Tuesday for the cattle
  • Cash cattle will continue to move higher in the days ahead
  • Hogs turned lower on a Tuesday

As August rolls on the corn and soybean condition ratings start to drift away from each other. Today’s report may be considered mute as severe thunderstorms moved across much of Iowa on Monday and farmers are reporting widespread wind damage to fields and farm infrastructure.

Corn silking is almost considered complete across the country at 97%. Still ahead of the 5 year average by 2%. Kansas is just off the national pace at 95%. Nebraska and Iowa corn are both considered 98% silked. Leaving them just a few percentage points ahead of their respective 5 year averages.

Corn entering the dough stage took a big jump from last week. Nationally corn in the dough stage is considered 59% across the country. That is 20% higher than last week’s rating. Iowa topped the nations jump with 22% to now 66% in the dough stage. Nebraska and Kansas both saw a considerable increase and are now 67% in the dough stage.

The August 10th report featured out first look at corn entering into the dent stage. The national corn crop is just behind the 5 year average at 11% dent. Kansas is one of the states farthest along in the dent stage at 26%. That is 6% ahead of the Kansas 5 year average. Nebraska corn is 14% in the dent stage. Almost doubling it’s 5 year average of 8%. Iowa corn has reached 9% in the dent stage. That is 2% ahead of the 5 year average.

As for corn condition a dropping Iowa number may have finally caught up to the nation with the national corn rating dropping 1% to 71% good to excellent. Iowa corn fell 4% last week to 69% good to excellent. After today’s storms that number may continue to decrease next week. Nebraska and Kansas corn each improved 1% to 78% and 62% good to excellent respectively. Illinois corn improved 3% to 79% good to excellent.

From corn to soybeans starting in the almost finished blooming stage. Across the country 92% of the soybean crop is considered in and past the bloom stage. That is keeping pace ahead of the 5 year average. Nebraska soybeans are almost to the finish line on blooming at 98%. Iowa soybeans in the bloom stage is rated 94%. That is 2% ahead of the 5 year average. Kansas soybeans are considered 81% in the bloom stage.

As for soybeans setting pods the national number according to NASS is 75%, 7% ahead of the 5 year national average. 81% of Nebraska soybeans have set pods, Kansas 64%, Iowa 83%. Most states are well ahead of their respective 5 year averages.

Soybean condition unlike corn actually improved across the country last week, up 1% to 74% good to excellent. This marks the second straight week of 1% improvement in the soybean condition. Iowa was again the lone wolf to see a 3% drop to 70% good to excellent. Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska soybeans all improved 2% to 76%,68% and 79%  good to excellent respectively.

Small grain harvest like winter wheat and oats continue, but are quickly approaching the done mark. Winter wheat harvest across the country is considered 90% complete. Just behind the 5 year average of 93%. Nebraska is almost ready to join Kansas at the finish line at 98% complete. Northern states though continue to fall behind the 5 year average. Washington winter wheat harvest is 10% behind at 55% complete. Montana is 27% behind at 45% harvested.

Oat harvest across the country is considered 65% complete. That is just ahead of the 5 year average of 59%. Nebraska oat harvest is 95% and Iowa oat harvest is considered 94% complete.

Sorghum condition is still being tracked as harvest has not yet started. Nationally the sorghum crop is considered 58% good to excellent, up 3% from last week. Nebraska sorghum is rated 65% good to excellent, up 1%.

Possibly seeing the biggest weekly drop of condition ratings is the cotton crop. Nationally the cotton crop decreased 3% to 42% good to excellent. That is a far cry from last year’s cotton crop, which was rated 56% good to excellent.

Pasture and range saw mixed results week to week for Kansas and Nebraska. Kansas range improved 1% to 54% good to excellent. Nebraska range decreased 1% to 58% good to excellent.

After a healthy recharge of topsoil and subsoil moisture Kansas and Nebraska are starting to dry down. Nebraska topsoil decreased 3% to 60% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil dropped 5% to 76% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture in Nebraska is rated 60% adequate to surplus. That is a drop  of 4% from last week. Kansas topsoil moisture decreased 5% to 76% adequate to surplus.

Looking at the nation though three states stand out in short subsoil moisture. New Mexico is rated 90% short to very short subsoil moisture. California is rated 75% short to very short subsoil moisture. Oregon is rated 73% short to very short on subsoil moisture.

You can see the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/ht24x6829/4q77gd714/prog3320.pdf

Clay Patton’s audio recap of the report:

With another school year drawing closer, many teachers and parents will be looking for solid, professional teaching materials that will lend themselves to a virtual classroom.

The National Corn Growers Association is offering a program called “Nourish the Future” which will meet state-learning guidelines. Nourish the Future is a national education initiative developed by science teachers for science teachers, with assistance from the NCGA. The goal is to inspire a network of educators to foster critical thinking, connect students to modern agriculture, and provide sound science-based resources to meet teachers’ and students’ needs in the classroom.

Agriculture is a vital partner in engaging students with STEM concepts in ways that directly and indirectly impact their lives. Nourish the Future will help kids learn just how science connects with agriculture. Not only does teaching ag-based curriculum in the science classroom inspire students to solve real-world science issues, reaching students is critical to address the job gap in agriculture-related careers, many of which are unfilled.

Through the curriculum, teachers and parents can get free hands-on lessons addressing current science topics. It also invests in teachers by helping them enhance their skills. More information is available at www.ncga.com.

  • This is a week many are ready to put to bed.
  • Reality check is good once and awhile
  • USDA Report next week
  • Not everything isn’t negative out there
  • where is the ethanol market at right now
  • don’t become a buyer right now
  • Funds still have a sizable short position as it typically does near harvest
  • Are grain guys nervous on lack of protein movement

  • Restrict expanded limits?
  • Why are markets not reflecting realty with the grain trade?
  • StoneX on yield information released this week-how are producers reacting?
  • Dakota Pipeline will not get shutdown while the case is heard-good for grain
  • Lebanon explosion and the need for grains…port issues due to the explosion
  • Hog prices are stagnate
  • Cattle prices continue to trend higher

 

National Corn Growers Association responded in formal comments this week to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Censky’s request for stakeholder input into a new formal Agricultural Innovation Agenda.

NCGA developed a comprehensive process to provide our best understanding of the objectives and opportunities leading to research goals and informed product goals to facilitate transformative breakthroughs. Through this process, NCGA identified a few major concerns coming from U.S. corn growers that primarily boiled down to three key points:

  • Their ability to retain or grow profitability;
  • Their ability to optimize environmental and economic benefits from implementing conservation or sustainability practices; and,
  • Their ability to cope with increasing biotic and abiotic stressors.

NCGA considered not only the innovation needed to reach USDA’s goals of improved yield and efficiency with a reduction in environmental footprint but also how to best encourage the adoption of practices or participation in new farming structures.

“Ultimately, farmers will adopt or participate in something that has been demonstrated to improve their profitability, either through increased income, decreased cost, or decreased time investment,” said NCGA President Kevin Ross. “In the end, the agricultural industry will continue to innovate, and farming will continue to evolve, but to be sustainable, the value of these changes must be appropriated and shared back to the farm.”

These breakthroughs are meant to enable U.S. agriculture to meet the USDA’s goal of increasing agricultural production by 40 percent to meet the needs of the global population in 2050 while cutting the environmental footprint of US agriculture in half.  NCGA received more than 500 responses to an electronic survey of U.S. corn growers, as well as participation by corn industry stakeholders and environmental organizations in an in-depth telephone survey. The survey results informed NCGA’s efforts to provide meaningful input to USDA and will be critical to guiding future research.

The Ag Innovation Agenda is meant to identify transformational innovation opportunities for the next era of agriculture productivity and environmental conservation and propose approaches to these opportunities with an eye to the public and private sector research needed to support them. Input from the agricultural and scientific community will help inform research goals with the intent of aligning applications and technologies to best address the goals of the Agriculture Innovation Agenda for the next 10 to 30 years.

  • Crop progress report
  • Yield information that wasn’t a big surprise to the trade
  • Collusion in grains?
  • China buying more grain as they ramp up hog production
  • Struggles in the cattle market