Friday is first notice day for the March grain future contracts. There were no deliveries of corn, soybeans or Chicago wheat. Overnight was mostly lower once again and as the Corona Virus fear continues to keep most markets risk off the day trade opened lower. Dan O’brien of Top Third Ag Marketing pointed out that grains have fallen below many levels of support. This could mean when value buyers do come in there could be small rally. For wheat though rallies could be sold as managed money looks to liquidate their built up long position in the grain. The market does not seem to want to pay attention to some of the positive factors we’ve seen this week including the fact that China could have helped get sorghum exports to one of the highest levels we’ve seen in several years.
Wednesday Argentina’s Ag Ministry halted the registration of ag exports. Analysts believe this signals a big rise in export taxes is about to hit the country. The US Dollar is also sinking with the equities and have backed the Dollar down from it’s April 2017 highs.
Not helping the grain bulls was wheat and soybean export sales missed analysts expectations. Wheat came in at 381,000 MT and soybeans 339,000 MT. Soybeans missed the most frugal analysts by about 200,000 MT and China was only 71,000 MT of the sales. Corn export sales were in line at 864,000 MT. Sorghum also hit a marketing year high at 444,500 MT with 324,200 MT bought by an unknown destination.
USDA announced just prior to the open on Wednesday that South Korea is in for 12,300 MT of option origin corn.
Ukraine’s grains exports are up 23.1% for the current marketing year.
As the DOW Futures traded lower livestock once again opened to the down side.
Beef net export sales were at 13,900 MT dn 28% from last week and the 4 week wtd avg. Top buyers included Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada. Beef exports were at 17,800 MT down 1% from the last week and up 2% from the 4 week average. Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan and Canada were the top destinations.
Pork net export sales were 38,900 MT up 64% from last week and 34% above the 4 week weighted average. Top buyers included Mexico, South Korea and China. Pork exports were at 42,500 MT up 1% from last week and the 4 week weighted average. Top destinations were again China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Canada.
The country is very quiet this afternoon and it is looking like business is essentially be done for the week Some sources are saying that other than some cleanup, business just may be essentially done for the week, especially in the South. Having said that, asking prices for cattle left on show lists are around $117 plus in the South, and $187 plus in the North. Tuesday saw light to moderate trade in most areas. Northern dressed trade ranged from $185 to $187, mostly $187, roughly $3 lower than last week’s weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live deals were at $115, generally $5 lower than the prior week’s weighted averages.
Midday Carcass Value Thursday
Choice dn 0.50 205.84
Select up 1.24 199.84
C/S Spread 6.00
Carcass up 1.94 66.43
Bellies up 12.97 80.28
- Corn dn 1 up 1/2
- Soybeans dn 5 3/4 -9 1/4
- Chicago Wht dn 5 1/2 – 7 1/2
- Kansas City Wht dn 1 1/4 – 5
- Live Cattle dn 1.55 – 2.75
- Feeder Cattle dn 2.50 – 3.02
- Lean Hogs dn 0.20 -1.07
- Class III Milk dn 0.04 up 0.03
Pre-opening Market Broker Commentary
Dan Obrien, Top Third Ag Marketing, discusses overnight grains and what the trade may see today.
Jerry Stowell, Country Futures, looks at what may impact the livestock futures today.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes a look at the midday trade. Zuzolo see’s the current market trade as a possible buyers market.
John Payne, Daniels Ag Marketing, looks at the grain settlements.
Jack Fenske, York Commodities, looks at the closing market numbers.