Tag Archives: wheat

USDA expects farmers to harvest a record 15.3 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall, with a national average yield of 181.8 bushels per acre (bpa), which is also a record, according to its first Crop Production report of the season.

Soybean production is estimated at 4.42 bb with a record national average yield of 53.3 bpa.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Wednesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bearish for soybeans. Meanwhile, the world ending stocks estimates were neutral-to-bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for increased production offset by lower imports, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report. Imports are lowered 10 million bushels this month to 130 million on the larger HRS supplies. Estimated food use for 2019/20 is lowered fractionally to 962 million bushels, based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Food use for the 2020/21 market year is lowered 4 million bushels to 960 million as food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19. Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million on lower production for several key competitors, most notably the EU. With offsetting supply changes and increased use, ending stocks are lowered 17 million bushels to 925 million. If realized, these will be the lowest wheat ending stocks in 6 years. However, the season-average farm price is decreased $0.10 per bushel to $4.50 on lower U.S. corn prices and reduced wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year. 

Foreign 2020/21 wheat production is lowered 3.7 million tons led by a 4.0-million-ton reduction for the EU, and 1.0-million-ton reductions each for Kazakhstan and Turkey. These changes are partially offset by a 1.5-million-ton production increase for Russia and a 1.1-million-ton increase for Brazil. The production changes are based on updated harvest results and government estimates. 

Global beginning stocks are raised 3.8 million tons, reflecting several mostly offsetting changes as well as a 3.5 million ton increase for the EU, which is based on multi-year revisions to both use and stocks. Foreign consumption is lowered 1.3 million tons, led by a 1.0- million-ton reduction for EU feed and residual use based on the smaller crop. Global exports are lowered fractionally with several offsetting changes including a 1.5-million-ton cut for the EU, and a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, both on reduced production. These are offset by a 1.5-million-ton export increase for Russia, based on increased supplies, and a 0.7-million-ton increase for the United States. With global use down more than supplies, world ending stocks are revised 2.0-million-tons higher to a record 316.8 million tons. 

 

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota. Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending WASDE-603-2 stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel. 

Sorghum production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with the yield 9.1 bushels per acre above last month’s historical median yield. Sorghum exports are raised reflecting an increase in the expected amount of shipments to China. 

This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries including Poland, Italy, and Hungary. Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand. Barley production is lowered for the EU, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and Ukraine. 

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include corn export increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Burma. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada, and Thailand, but reduced for India. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and Argentina, with higher imports forecast for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative to last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India. 

 

RICE: The outlook for U.S. rice in 2020/21 this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as lower production is only partially offset by increased beginning stocks and imports. The initial surveybased production forecast for the 2020/21 crop year reduced production from the previous forecast by 2.6 million cwt to 218.1 million, all on lower yields. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,600 pounds per acre, down 89 pounds from the prior forecast but up from last year’s 7,471 pounds. Long-grain production is forecast at 159.1 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 59.0 million. Projected all rice imports are raised 1.4 million cwt to 36.0 million as the robust import pace seen in 2019/20 marketing year is expected to moderate only slightly in 2020/21. Imports for 2019/20 are forecast at a record 36.7 million cwt as they are also raised this month on continued large Asian shipments. All rice exports for 2020/21 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 97.0 million with all of the reduction for longgrain on continued South American competition in Western Hemisphere markets. Projected ending stocks are raised to 44.3 million cwt, up 0.5 million from last month and 44 percent higher than last year. The 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $12.70 per cwt, compared to last year’s $13.10. 

The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, lower consumption and trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.6 million tons to 681.7 million, primarily on reduced production forecasts for China, Thailand, and Vietnam. China’s production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 147.0 million on record rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley during June and July causing severe flooding and reducing harvested area. Production for Thailand and Vietnam is reduced on decreased irrigation availability with low reservoir and river levels. Despite these reductions, 2020/21 world production remains record-high at 500.0 million tons. Global consumption is reduced by 1.9 million tons to 496.5 million, still a record, primarily on reductions for China, Brazil, and Nigeria. World trade is decreased 0.6 million tons to 44.3 million tons, mainly on export reductions for Thailand and China but remains well above last year’s 41.5 million. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 185.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 63 and 21 percent of the total, respectively. WASDE-603-3 

 

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning stocks and higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced on a small increase in 2019/20 soybean crush. Soybean production is forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from last month and is 5.9 bushels above last year’s level. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at a record 5.1 billion bushels, up 13 percent from last year. U.S. soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2.13 billion on increased global import demand, increased supplies, and lower prices. Soybean crush is also raised, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 610 million bushels, up 185 million from last month. 

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $8.35 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent. 

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Partly offsetting higher U.S. production, foreign oilseed production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 479.6 million, mainly on lower rapeseed and sunflower seed crops. Rapeseed production is lowered for Ukraine and Kazakhstan while sunflower seed production is lowered for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. 

Global 2020/21 soybean trade is raised 3.9 million tons, with higher exports for Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. This is parallel to higher imports for China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India. Soybean crush for China is raised 3.0 million tons to 98.0 million in 2020/21, but soybean meal equivalent (SME) protein growth is unchanged from last month at 5 percent due to oilseed meal consumption changes in the prior year. With higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use, mainly in China, global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 95.4 million. Other notable changes include higher 2020/21 peanut production for India on the rapid planting pace and higher 2019/20 Malaysian palm oil production on recent monthly output strength. 

 

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2020/21 is increased by 131,777 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1.4053 million. Beet production is increased 198,840 STRV on increases in forecasts made by NASS for crop yields in sugarbeet-producing States. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 30,000 STRV based on processors’ forecasts published in Sweetener Market Data. Cane sugar production in Texas is decreased by 54,000 STRV to 81,000 on the NASS forecast of the cane yield decreasing to 21.9 tons/acre as a result of Hurricane Hanna. Imports for 2020/21 are lowered slightly, mostly on FTA sugar allocated for the 2020 calendar year entering the United States earlier in 2019/20 than forecast last month. Beginning stocks are reduced by 28,281 STRV on lower 2019/20 beet sugar production and lower imports stemming mostly from a 50,000-STRV reduction in estimated high-tier tariff imports. With no use changes, ending stocks increase to 1.788 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.6 percent. 

Mexico sugar supply for 2020/21 is reduced by 221,680 metric tons (MT) to 6.896 million. Production for 2020/21 is reduced 100,000 MT to 6.0 million based on reports of long-term drought effects on sugarcane planted area. Beginning stocks are 121,680 MT lower based on an increase in 2019/20 deliveries from an unexpected jump in the pace over that estimated last month. Ending stocks for 2019/20 now represent about 2.2 months of expected use in 2020/21, down from the usual policy target of 2.5 months. For 2020/21 ending stocks are still projected at 2.5 months of anticipated use in the following year. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are projected to absorb all of the reduction in 2020/21 supply. WASDE-603-4 

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2020 forecast for total meat production is lowered slightly from last month as decreases in pork production more than offset higher beef and poultry production. Higher beef production largely reflects a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and lighter carcass weights for the year. Broiler and turkey production reflect June production data; no changes are made to forecasts for the outlying quarters. The 2020 egg production forecast is raised on hatchery data. For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast is unchanged from the previous month on offsetting changes in beef and broiler production. The 2021 beef production forecast is reduced from the previous month as lower expected placements in the first half of the year will be reflected in lower forecast slaughter in the second half of 2021. The 2021 broiler production forecast is raised from last month on lower feed costs. Pork and turkey production forecasts are unchanged. The egg production forecast is raised from last month. 

For 2020, beef imports are raised on recent trade data and firm demand for imported processing grade beef. The beef import forecast for 2021 is also raised. The 2020 beef export forecast is decreased slightly on recent trade data. The 2020 pork trade forecast is adjusted to reflect June trade data; no changes are made to the 2021 forecasts. The 2020 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data and continued slow import demand from a number of trading partners. The 2020 turkey export forecast is adjusted to reflect June data; the 2021 forecast is unchanged. 

Fed cattle prices for 2020 are raised from last month on current price strength. The first-quarter 2021 fed cattle price forecast is raised, but the annual forecast is unchanged from last month. The 2020 hog price forecast is lowered on recent price pressure, but the 2021 price forecast is unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2020 is raised fractionally on a higher forecast third quarter price. Forecasts for 2021 are unchanged. The third-quarter turkey price forecast for 2020 is raised; no change is made to the 2021 turkey price forecast. The 2020 egg price forecast is reduced on recent price weakness and supply pressure. Egg price forecasts for 2021 are also reduced as large supplies are expected to weigh on the market. 

The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month as higher expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets slightly lower dairy cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on continued strong demand for imported butter. The fat basis export forecast is raised on increased shipments of cheese and butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and a number of other dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher exports of dry skim milk products. Cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are reduced from last month. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese prices, while the Class IV price forecast is reduced on lower butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.95 per cwt. 

For 2021, the milk production forecast is reduced on slower growth in cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecast is raised on more competitive cheese and butter prices. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on continued strong international import demand for skim milk powder. Price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month, while the whey forecast is increased. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced as the lower cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price forecast. WASDE-603-5 The Class IV price forecast is reduced on a lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is unchanged at $17.05 per cwt for 2021. 

 

COTTON: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast. The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations. Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019. With reduced harvested area in the Southwest, U.S. yield is projected at a record 938 pounds/acre, 14 percent higher than in 2019. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales as lower than expected 2019/20 U.S. mill use offsets an upward revision in exports. Expected 2020/21 mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, while ending stocks are 800,000 bales higher. The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month. 

This month’s 2020/21 world cotton outlook includes higher production, and ending stocks, but lower beginning stocks, consumption and trade. World production is 1.3 million bales higher as lower production in Mali and Greece is more than offset by increases for India, the United States, and Australia. Expected 2020/21 world consumption is 1.2 million bales lower this month, with declines in India, China, Pakistan, Brazil, and Indonesia offsetting gains for Bangladesh and Turkey. Imports are projected lower in Pakistan, Indonesia, and India, and higher in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Malaysia. This month, 2020/21 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million bales higher than the previous month and 4.4 million bales higher than in 2019/20. 

NOTE: The U.S. production forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of August 1. Any potential impacts from severe weather that occurred after August 1 will be reflected in future reports. 

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. 

As August rolls on the corn and soybean condition ratings start to drift away from each other. Today’s report may be considered mute as severe thunderstorms moved across much of Iowa on Monday and farmers are reporting widespread wind damage to fields and farm infrastructure.

Corn silking is almost considered complete across the country at 97%. Still ahead of the 5 year average by 2%. Kansas is just off the national pace at 95%. Nebraska and Iowa corn are both considered 98% silked. Leaving them just a few percentage points ahead of their respective 5 year averages.

Corn entering the dough stage took a big jump from last week. Nationally corn in the dough stage is considered 59% across the country. That is 20% higher than last week’s rating. Iowa topped the nations jump with 22% to now 66% in the dough stage. Nebraska and Kansas both saw a considerable increase and are now 67% in the dough stage.

The August 10th report featured out first look at corn entering into the dent stage. The national corn crop is just behind the 5 year average at 11% dent. Kansas is one of the states farthest along in the dent stage at 26%. That is 6% ahead of the Kansas 5 year average. Nebraska corn is 14% in the dent stage. Almost doubling it’s 5 year average of 8%. Iowa corn has reached 9% in the dent stage. That is 2% ahead of the 5 year average.

As for corn condition a dropping Iowa number may have finally caught up to the nation with the national corn rating dropping 1% to 71% good to excellent. Iowa corn fell 4% last week to 69% good to excellent. After today’s storms that number may continue to decrease next week. Nebraska and Kansas corn each improved 1% to 78% and 62% good to excellent respectively. Illinois corn improved 3% to 79% good to excellent.

From corn to soybeans starting in the almost finished blooming stage. Across the country 92% of the soybean crop is considered in and past the bloom stage. That is keeping pace ahead of the 5 year average. Nebraska soybeans are almost to the finish line on blooming at 98%. Iowa soybeans in the bloom stage is rated 94%. That is 2% ahead of the 5 year average. Kansas soybeans are considered 81% in the bloom stage.

As for soybeans setting pods the national number according to NASS is 75%, 7% ahead of the 5 year national average. 81% of Nebraska soybeans have set pods, Kansas 64%, Iowa 83%. Most states are well ahead of their respective 5 year averages.

Soybean condition unlike corn actually improved across the country last week, up 1% to 74% good to excellent. This marks the second straight week of 1% improvement in the soybean condition. Iowa was again the lone wolf to see a 3% drop to 70% good to excellent. Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska soybeans all improved 2% to 76%,68% and 79%  good to excellent respectively.

Small grain harvest like winter wheat and oats continue, but are quickly approaching the done mark. Winter wheat harvest across the country is considered 90% complete. Just behind the 5 year average of 93%. Nebraska is almost ready to join Kansas at the finish line at 98% complete. Northern states though continue to fall behind the 5 year average. Washington winter wheat harvest is 10% behind at 55% complete. Montana is 27% behind at 45% harvested.

Oat harvest across the country is considered 65% complete. That is just ahead of the 5 year average of 59%. Nebraska oat harvest is 95% and Iowa oat harvest is considered 94% complete.

Sorghum condition is still being tracked as harvest has not yet started. Nationally the sorghum crop is considered 58% good to excellent, up 3% from last week. Nebraska sorghum is rated 65% good to excellent, up 1%.

Possibly seeing the biggest weekly drop of condition ratings is the cotton crop. Nationally the cotton crop decreased 3% to 42% good to excellent. That is a far cry from last year’s cotton crop, which was rated 56% good to excellent.

Pasture and range saw mixed results week to week for Kansas and Nebraska. Kansas range improved 1% to 54% good to excellent. Nebraska range decreased 1% to 58% good to excellent.

After a healthy recharge of topsoil and subsoil moisture Kansas and Nebraska are starting to dry down. Nebraska topsoil decreased 3% to 60% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil dropped 5% to 76% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture in Nebraska is rated 60% adequate to surplus. That is a drop  of 4% from last week. Kansas topsoil moisture decreased 5% to 76% adequate to surplus.

Looking at the nation though three states stand out in short subsoil moisture. New Mexico is rated 90% short to very short subsoil moisture. California is rated 75% short to very short subsoil moisture. Oregon is rated 73% short to very short on subsoil moisture.

You can see the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/ht24x6829/4q77gd714/prog3320.pdf

Clay Patton’s audio recap of the report:

  • Restrict expanded limits?
  • Why are markets not reflecting realty with the grain trade?
  • StoneX on yield information released this week-how are producers reacting?
  • Dakota Pipeline will not get shutdown while the case is heard-good for grain
  • Lebanon explosion and the need for grains…port issues due to the explosion
  • Hog prices are stagnate
  • Cattle prices continue to trend higher

 

The first crop progress report of August shows a corn and soybean crop that is still strong and in one case improving. Row crops are also quickly entering important stages of production. Winter wheat harvest continues to lag in Northern states. While oat harvest is is almost to the halfway point. Pasture and range condition looks to be holding rather than the deteriorating, like it was just a few weeks ago. Finally moisture levels continue to increase in several Midwestern states.

Starting in the corn crop, first up is silking. Nationwide 92% of the crop has reached the silking stage. That is up 10% from a week ago and is 5% ahead of the five year average. States like Nebraska almost have the whole corp silking or silked at 94%. That is up 3% from the five year average. Kansas corn is keeping close pace with it’s 5 year average at 90% silking. Iowa corn is now rated 95% silked, up 3% from the 5 year average.

Corn entering the dough stage is moving right along, up 17% week to 39% across the country. That is 6% ahead of the 5 year average. Nebraska corn is now 43% in the dough stage, up 12% from the 5 year average. Iowa is just ahead of Nebraska at 44% in the dough stage. Kansas is ahead of both Iowa and Nebraska at 53% in the dough stage. That is 12% ahead of the Kansas 5 year average.

As for corn and soybean condition some may be surprised to not see a decrease for this week. Nationally the corn crop condition remained unchanged at 72% good to excellent. Iowa was again one of the few major corn producing states to see a decline of 4% to 73% good to excellent. Nebraska corn improved another 2% to 77% good to excellent. Kansas corn improved 1% to 61% good to excellent. After an 11% increase last week Illinois corn slowed down and only improved 2% this week to 74% good to excellent.

Now for soybeans we start with soybeans that are blooming and that would be about 85% of the national soybean crop. That is just ahead of the 5 year average of 82%. Nebraska has 95% of it’s soybeans blooming. That is up 8% from the 5 year average. Kansas soybeans are now 79% in the bloom stage. That is up 9% from the five year average. Iowa soybeans have the end in sight for blooming now 91% complete. That is up 5% from the Iowa 5 year average.

Just like corn in the dough stage soybeans setting pods really increased week to week. Nationwide 59% of the soybean crop has put on pods. In Iowa 70% of the soybeans have put on pods. That is up 13% from the 5 year average. Nebraska has 64% of the soybean crop putting on pods. Kansas has 55% of it’s soybean crop putting on pods. That is a full 20% ahead of the 5 year average.

Breaking away from corn this week is the soybean condition rating. Which nationwide improved 1% to 73% good to excellent. Illinois remained unchanged week to week at 76% good to excellent. Kansas improved 1% to 68% good to excellent. Iowa and Nebraska both declined in soybean condition ratings. Nebraska soybeans dropped 1% to 79% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans dropped 3% to 73% good to excellent.

Oat harvest is about to cross the halfway mark at 49% complete. That is 6% higher than the 5 year average for oat harvest. Nebraska farmers have harvested 92% of the oat crop. Well ahead of the 5 year average of 81%. Iowa has harvested 85% of their oat crop. Similar to Nebraska Iowa has left it’s 5 year average for oat harvest behind at 74%.

Like soybeans nationally the oat crop improved 1% to 62% good to excellent. Iowa oats are rated 73% good to excellent. Nebraska oats are rated 61% good to excellent.

The sorghum crop is quickly coming along and looking fairly decent. Nationally the sorghum crop is rated 55% good to excellent. That is a 2% increase week to week. Nebraska soybeans top the nation’s crop condition rating at 64% good to excellent.

Winter wheat harvest is now over the three quarter mark, but slowing down. According to NASS 85% of winter wheat harvest is complete. That trails the 5 year average by 3%. Nebraska is soon to join the likes of Texas and Kansas at 96% complete. Northern states like Montana continue to slow the overall progress of wheat harvest with only 20% of the corp harvested. That compares to the 5 year average of 52% harvested. Washington is also well off pace at 33% harvested, compared to 48% on the 5 year average.

Pasture and range conditions were mixed this week as compared to last week’s gain. Nebraska pasture declined 1% to 59% good to excellent. Kansas pasture and range improved 1% to 53% good to excellent.

Soil moisture though continues to increase across much of the Midwest with recent rains. Nebraska topsoil moisture improved 4% to 63% adequate to surplus. Kansas topsoil moisture improved 11% to 81% adequate to surplus. Nebraska subsoil improved 2% to 64% adequate to surplus. Kansas subsoil improved 8% to 77% adequate to surplus.

You can see all of the NASS crop condition numbers here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/70795w747/6t054476d/prog3220.pdf

Clay Patton audio report:

 

Thursday markets were mixed from the outside equities to the commodities. China made a historic purchase of corn at 1,937,000 Metric Tons for the 2020/2021 marketing year. Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners believes this shows that Chinese demand is strong and will likely continue barring issues between the worlds largest economies. However the trade is still focused on how big the US crop will likely be and is cautious to shake loose short positions.

Peterson also highlights how important currencies are currently to the market. The US Dollar index has continued to decline, but that is partly due to a quickly rising Euro. The US Dollar in comparison  to emerging currencies like the Real and Ruble is still relatively strong. That means that the biggest competition to US ag commodities still has some competitiveness issues.

Hear the whole conversation here:

  • DC Court of appeals decision Dakota Access Pipeline-removing risk for farmers
  • Higher crop ratings…some ratings the highest in 10 years
  • Some export business for wheat out of Kansas City
  • Hogs see triple digit losses…roller coaster in general for the livestock
  • Break in product prices.
  • Cash for cattle sparce
  • Safety for workers
  • Fear factor continues to reign

Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell after a mixed Tuesday trade. Grains all moved lower following the latest crop progress update from NASS. Zuzolo is still looking at dry conditions in Illinois, Iowa, Ohio and Michigan. So far rains have been beneficial and timely, but the latest forecast models show that dry conditions could continue to persist and the corn belt may miss it’s next timely rain.

Aside from the supply side of the equation there is still more demand to draw up. In the second segment of Final Bell Zuzolo reveals his latest data on China and the flooding they are experiencing. This actually translates into not only demand for grains, but protein as well. Zuzolo wraps up the market commentary with a look at the cattle market and what it means for the board to continue running premium to the futures.

Listen to the full episode here:

LINCOLN — Wheat stem sawfly (WSS) has been a very significant pest of wheat in the northern wheat-producing regions of our country such as Montana and North Dakota and well into Canada. Larvae cut and weaken the stems of maturing wheat causing the wheat to lodge creating very significant harvest losses in many situations. WSS damage in winter wheat was first noted in Nebraska in the early to mid-1990s. The first infestations were noted in Banner County near the Wyoming border. It has continued to increase ever since and now is a very significant issue. Integrated pest management will be needed to attack the problem with multiple tactics. Crop rotation, resistant varieties with solid stem characteristics, tillage, field width, and trap crops are some of the tools that can be used to combat this problem.

Following the moderately heavy infestation of WSS in winter wheat in the 2019 growing season, we had concern for ongoing infestations in 2020. During May and early June 2020, adult sawflies were observed in fields, but we were unsure of the level of infestation. Those emerging numbers of sawflies developed into another year of significant sawfly infestation and cutting as we are seeing during the 2020 winter wheat harvest. Infestations this season are moderate in the northern Panhandle and heavier in the southern Panhandle. Note the lodged tillers remaining after harvest in a Deuel County field (Figure 1). Dryland wheat yields are looking good averaging from 40 to 50 bu/ac despite sawfly activity in the northern Panhandle. Some yields in the southern Panhandle are as low as 25-30 bu/ac due to the sawfly. The wheat harvest this year is ahead of last year due to warmer, drier weather.

Figure 1. Unharvested tillers remaining in field due to Wheat Stem Sawfly lodging.

Dryland wheat is most seriously affected but some level of infestation also occurs in irrigated wheat. Dryland wheat adjacent to undisturbed stubble from last year appears to have the worst infestations. In some fields, 50 to 70 percent of the stems are cut for the first 50 to 100 feet of the field edge (Figure 2). Cutting tapers off further into the field but may be as high as 15% across an entire field.

Sawfly larvae overwinter in the stubble (Figure 3) of the previous year’s crop and emerge in May and June to attack the developing crop during stem elongation. Females (Figure 4) emerge from the stubble, mate, and lay an egg in the newly elongating wheat stem. The egg hatches and the larvae feed and tunnel through the nodes of the developing wheat finally to girdle and weaken the stem causing lodging for its exit from the remaining stub the following spring. The larvae live in a pupal chamber inside the stub at the very base of the stem (Figure 5 & 6) after harvest and through the winter.

Wheat Stubs
Figure 3. Wheat Stubs remaining in field.
Adult female
Figure 4. Adult female WSS.
pupal chamber and larvae
Figure 5. Cellophane like pupal chamber and larvae.
Wheat Stem Sawfly larvae
Figure 6. Wheat Stem Sawfly larvae.

The second half of July is looking to have a friendlier forecast for crops. This combined with last week’s moisture and heat helped to keep corn conditions nationwide unchanged week to week. Soybean conditions increased 1% week to week. Winter wheat harvest seems to be hitting a slight speed bump as it moves North. Pasture and range condition continues to deteriorate and soil moisture levels are mixed.

For corn the heat is helping keep development ahead of schedule. Nationwide 59% of the corp is silking. That is 5% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska’s corn crop is now 61% silked. Kansas corn has reached 66% silk. That is 2%-3% ahead of the five year average.

Corn in the dough stage tripled week to week from 3% to 9% nationwide. Nebraska is only half way to it’s five year average at 3%. Kansas corn on the other hand is nearly double it’s five year average at 25% in the dough stage.

Corn condition nationwide remained unchanged at 69% good to excellent. Kansas increased 1% week to week to 54% good to excellent. Texas and Illinois corn increased 2%. South Dakota corn increased 2%.  Nebraska decreased 4% to 66% good to excellent. Iowa fell another 2% to 81% good to excellent. Indiana remained unchanged week to week at 59% good to excellent.

Soybeans crossed the halfway threshold for blooming. According to NASS 64% of the national soybean crop has now bloomed. That is up from last week’s 48% and 7% ahead of the five year average. Nebraska soybeans are now 75% in bloom. Kansas soybeans in bloom are 11% ahead of the five year average at 55%.

Nationwide 25% of the soybeans have set pods. That is up 14% from last week. Nebraska has reached 31% setting pods on it’s soybeans. That is more than double it’s five year average of 15%. Kansas soybeans have set pods on 15% of the crop. That is up 4% from the five year average.

Some analysts expected soybean conditions to continue decreasing, but NASS believes the crop improved slightly week to week. Nationwide the soybean crop improved 1% to 69% good to excellent. Iowa soybeans decreased 1% to 82% good to excellent, Kansas soybeans dropped 2% to 57% good to excellent, Nebraska fell 2% go 71% good to excellent. North Dakota was able to tick up 1% to 69% good to excellent. Illinois may have seen one of the largest changes week to week up 8% to 67% good to excellent.

Sorghum condition also increased week to week. Nationwide the sorghum crop was rated up 5% to 51% good to excellent. Nebraska sorghum improved 3% good to excellent.

Winter wheat harvest seems to have hit a little bit of a speed bump as it wraps up in southern states and moves further north. Nationwide 74% of winter wheat harvest is complete. That is now 1% behind the five year average. Nebraska is 79% complete with winter wheat harvest. That is 13% ahead of the five year average. Kansas is synced with it’s five year average at 97% complete. Further to the North Washington is 11% behind the five year average at 5% complete. Montana is 6% behind the five year average at 3% complete.

The heat continues to take it’s toll on pasture and range. In Nebraska pasture and range decreased 3% to 45% good to excellent. Kansas pasture and range decreased 3% to 38% good to excellent.

Topsoil moisture was able to recharge in Kansas last week. According to NASS Kansas topsoil increased 6% to 61% adequate to surplus. Nebraska topsoil decreased 1% to 52% adequate to surplus.

Subsoil moisture was similar to topsoil moisture, with Kansas increase 5% to 60% adequate to surplus. Nebraska decreased 3% to 57% adequate to surplus.

You can see the full crop progress report here:

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/sf268t43v/1831d650j/prog3020.pdf

Clay Patton recaps the full report here: