The grain market closed mixed to mostly lower on Thursday. Soybeans were the lone grain to end with all contracts in the green. Aaron Bertels with Crossroad Marketing joins the Fontanelle Final Bell to highlight the reality of the current market. Volatile swings are starting to become more common place in the grain market, but Bertels explains that is to be somewhat expected with a market that has rallied like the grains. Bertels goes on to give his thoughts on what a farmer can do with their marketing plan in this current market environment.
Aside from the current market environment Bertels also discusses how the market could be impacted by upcoming reports like the WASDE. The market is already looking at pricing in sub 120 million bushel soybean carryout and near 1.3 billion bushel corn carryout.
You can catch the full conversation here:
Month of February for agriculture, Crop insurance base price, Could we see a GameStop move in agriculture? Weather globally & local for calving,
ST. LOUIS — Registration for the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic is now open at CommodityClassic.com. The 2021 Commodity Classic will be delivered digitally March 2-5, 2021.
The registration fee is waived for the first 5,000 farmers, thanks to the generous support of sponsors. All other registrants and farmers after the first 5,000 will be charged $20. The registration covers all online educational sessions and events as well as access to all archived sessions through April 30, 2021.
In October 2020, Commodity Classic announced that it was pivoting to a digital event due to restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2021 Commodity Classic, originally scheduled for San Antonio, Texas, in early March, is the Silver Anniversary of America’s largest farmer-owned, farmer-focused agricultural and educational experience.
The digital experience will focus on providing top-quality educational sessions and farmer networking opportunities that are hallmarks of Commodity Classic. A list of educational sessions is available at CommodityClassic.com—and that list will continue to grow over the next few weeks.
Attendees will have a wide variety of educational sessions from which to choose on a range of topics including soil health, grain marketing, biologicals, global weather forecasts, pest management, and stress management.
Participating companies will showcase new products, services and innovation through a variety of online presentations, educational sessions and interactive discussions. An impressive lineup of agriculture thought leaders, top-yielding farmers, agribusiness representatives, and Commodity Classic association leaders will also be featured.
To stay up to date on registration information, event schedule, speakers, educational sessions and other event details, sign up for email updates at CommodityClassic.com.
Premier Sponsors of the 2021 Special Edition of Commodity Classic are AGCO, Bayer, Case IH, Corteva AgriScience, John Deere and United Soybean Board/Soy Checkoff.
Champion Sponsors are BASF and Syngenta. Key Sponsors are Kubota/Great Plains, New Holland, Pioneer, Precision Planting and Valent.
Established in 1996, Commodity Classic is presented annually by the American Soybean Association, National Corn Growers Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, National Sorghum Producers and the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.
Kansas wheat leaders Justin Knopf and Kyler Millershaski and K-State wheat breeder Allan Fritz shared their stories in the new film — “Wholesome: The Journey of U.S. Wheat”. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) produced the 25-minute film to demonstrate how the passion, purpose and investments by the people in the wheat industry are integral to the commodity’s reputation as the world’s most reliable wheat.
“In our organization’s mission to promote U.S. wheat exports, our representatives focus on the consistently high quality of our supplies,” said USW Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer. “Through this film, the people at every step of the journey to export tell their own stories about how they thoughtfully produce new varieties, care for the land and the crop, and handle the wheat responsively to ensure it meets customer needs. This is an educational program that makes the stunning beauty of the land and the emotional attachment of these dependable people to the industry a key part of the story.”
Fritz discussed how wheat breeding programs, like that at Kansas State University, work to develop and release wheat varieties that help farmers address production constraints and meet specific wheat food needs to bring healthy, nutritious food to the table.
“The journey of wheat to food tables around the world begins in a facility like this — in a breeding program,” Fritz said. “What we’re doing is taking the opportunity with the natural genes that we already have to put those together in a package that is the healthiest and the best for the environment that we possibly can.”
Knopf, a fifth-generation farmer in central Kansas and president of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers (KAWG), discussed how wheat farmers monitor the crop throughout the growing season, emphasizing how farmers take great care in choosing what products to apply to their fields.
“When I make the decision to use a particular product, whether it be to fertilize the crop — to give it the fertility…that it needs to grow and produce nutritious grain and good grain quality — or to use a fungicide to protect the tissue from a fungal disease that’s affecting it, I always weigh those trade-offs with the end in mind,” Knopf said. “…Consumers can be confident we’ve done our due diligence at making those responsible decisions and weighing the trade-offs when utilizing products on our farm.”
Millershaski, a third-generation farmer from southwest Kansas and KAWG vice president, also emphasized how Kansas farmers are proud to produce an abundant supply of high-quality wheat, generation after generation.
“I would say as a farmer, and as a wheat grower specifically, there’s certainly a responsibility and a weight that you feel to not only provide a high-quality product but enough of it to feed the world,” he said. “That’s why we’re real selective in our varieties and make sure it has the right fertilizer and nutrients to grow and perform well. We want to have the bragging rights that — ‘hey, we’ve got the best wheat in the world. Buy from us.'”
USW plans to use the film in seminars, courses and trade events as they conduct the organization’s work to inform world wheat buyers and users about U.S. wheat export quality throughout 2021. Individual short subject films will also be released throughout the year.
Watch “Wholesome: The Journey of U.S. Wheat” here.
Why the down markets the past two days?
What is the takeaway?
What’s going on in SA weather & their crops
Latest with wheat, but they are pulled down by corn & beans
Are there more export taxes being talked about?
Money supply in the long term
Cattle futures disappointed in Texas trade
Hogs pushed some green on the screen
Return of the emotions of the markets yesterday
Wheat still dealing with Russia
Is there a big reversal in the weather pattern at the end of this month for South America?
USDA numbers pretty close to StoneX numbers
Sept 1 corn stalk numbers were adjusted as well this week
Higher corn-how have cattle been reacting?
How did the USDA get to those USDA numbers?
What will the overnight & Wednesday trade be like?
How will livestock continue to react?
USDA today released its January Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 125 million on lower-than-expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is up 1 million bushels to 63 million, reflecting 2020/21 wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 26 million bushels to 836 million, down 19 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $4.85 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices
for the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for smaller supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are lowered 1.6 million tons to 1,072.7 million on reduced production in China and Argentina more than offsetting an increase for Russia.
Corn sent to limit gains following USDA data drop Tuesday | Jeff Peterson – Heartland Farm Partners
China’s production is reduced 1.8 million tons to 134.3 million on the National Bureau of Statistics estimate. Russia’s production is raised 1.3 million tons to a new record of 85.3 million, based on estimates from Russia’s statistical agency Rosstat, surpassing the 2017/18 crop. Argentina’s production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million on updated harvest results to date and this would be Argentina’s smallest crop in five years. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 1.8 million tons to 759.5 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China and the United States and greater food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for Russia. Continued high domestic corn prices in China are expected to result in further wheat feed use as projected 2020/21 wheat feed consumption is raised 1.0 million tons to 25.0 million, up 32 percent from last year. Russia’s FSI consumption is raised 500,000 tons to 23.5 million with greater supplies.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol, smaller feed and residual use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, down 324 million on a lower yield and slight reduction in harvested area.
Total corn use is down 250 million bushels to 14.575 billion. Exports are down 100 million bushels, reflecting sharply lower supplies and higher expected prices. Corn used for ethanol is lowered, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production during December as indicated by the Energy Information Administration. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised to $4.20 per bushel.
Sorghum production is estimated 2 million bushels higher as increased harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels on lower sorghum used for ethanol. Exports are raised 15 million bushels reflecting larger exports to China.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 9.3 million tons to 1,438.5 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is reduced with declines for Argentina and Brazil more than offsetting increases for China and India. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is estimated at 122.4 million tons, down 1.25 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by an increase for canola and sunflower seed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Harvested area is estimated at 82.3 million acres, up slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels. With higher imports and slightly higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are down 14 million bushels from last month.
The soybean crush forecast is raised 5 million bushels to 2.2 billion, reflecting improved prospects for soybean meal exports with a lower export forecast for Argentina. The soybean export forecast is raised 30 million to a record 2.23 billion bushels. With lower supplies and increased use, ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, down 35 million from the previous forecast.
Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $11.15 per bushel, up 60 cents as cash prices in Central Illinois reach 6-year highs. The soybean meal price is projected at $390 per short ton, up 20 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents.
Foreign 2020/21 oilseed production is relatively unchanged, with higher sunflower seed mostly offset by lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and palm kernel output. Sunflower seed production is increased 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million for Russia based on recent government estimates. Soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 0.2 million to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January. Mostly offsetting lower South American soybean production is a 2.1-million-ton increase to 19.6 million for China on recent government data. Global soybean stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 84.3 million, with lower stocks for Argentina and the United States that are partly offset by higher stocks for China.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2020 total red meat and poultry production estimate is reduced from last month. The beef production estimate is reduced on lower cattle slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced as the slower pace of slaughter in late 2020 more than offset heavier carcass weights. The broiler production estimate is reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data, while the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data. The egg production estimate is unchanged.
For 2021, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month as lower expected beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production. Lower expected placements in late 2020 will impact fed cattle supplies in mid2021. Cattle carcass weights are forecast lighter for 2021. USDA will release its semiannual Cattle report on January 29, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2021.
The pork production forecast for 2021 is raised from the previous month as higher expected hog slaughter more than offsets lighter expected carcass weights. Broiler, turkey, and egg production forecasts are lowered for 2021 as higher feed costs are expected to slow production growth.
The beef import estimate for 2020 is reduced on recent trade data while the 2021 import forecast is reduced primarily due to lower expected imports from Australia. Beef exports for 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month. Pork exports for 2020 and 2021 are lowered from last month on weaker import demand from key trading partners. The 2020 broiler export estimate is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2020 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2021, cattle prices are raised on a lower production forecast. The 2021 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting strong domestic demand. Broiler prices are raised as lower forecast production in the second half of the year is expected to support firmer prices.