Did Thursday’s Price action tell us anything?
- Cash market weakness coming out of the north
- Are the cattle to big?
- What is behind the strength in the soybeans
- Will soybean prices continue to grow?
- Why are corn prices going up?
- Wheat continues to see dryness global
- Sum it up its weather & China
- Ethanol report out on Wednesday saw production tick lower
- Not endorsing one candidate over the other how does Nov 4th play into mkts
- Election risks
- Could there be an influx of dairy on the cattle market with current milk prices?
- Continuation of the status quo
- Many wondering where the stock is in China
- Will their buying keep up in the short term?
- Harvest progress is moving along quickly
- South America forecast is getting better
- Black Sea region is still tough
- Basis in the country
- Is the down trend in the cattle going to turn around?
- How is cash holding up?
- COF on Friday
- Wheat is the most confusing market right now
- Light buyer support for soybeans
- Dry weather concerns
- Corn isn’t really expensive…yet beans have some good value
- Cattle had some struggles in the trade, falling off the cliff today
- Make sure you remember what kind of year this is-does that set the stage for 2021
- Does the downtrend in cattle set the tone for cash this week?
Grains end mixed on Friday, but Troy Nielson with Smart Yield looks at the week’s trade. Overall corn and soybeans continue to hold record prices given the seasonality of harvest. This could give farmers a chance to sell grain into a strong market, but there is the lingering question of basis. Nielson looks at basis and the spreads to help explain what the current market is encouraging farmers to do.
Nielson also reflects on last week’s WASDE report and some of the data that may have been overlooked in the wild ride immediately following the report.
Catch the full episode here:
Grains continue to move higher being lead Thursday by wheat. Corn has almost all of it’s 2020/2021 contracts above the $4 mark. Soybeans continue to see strong soybean demand. Jeff Peterson, Heartland Farm Partners, discusses the fundamentals of what continues to drive the grain market higher. Of course with a market that doesn’t seem to want to stop has producers asking questions of what to do about selling into the cash market.
Peterson also addresses tough questions about China and the role their current strong demand is playing into this current market. Part of that discussion includes keying in on why the early week export inspections may be more important now than the weekly export sales report.
Cath the full conversation with Peterson here:
- Warm dry weather could cause some concerns
- Market is tenuous at the moment
- Election and the effects on the markets.
- Could the basis see some pressure this week?
- Grain prices & livestock
Sir Isaac Newton may have best explained Monday’s market action when he created his theory of gravity, “What goes up must come down.” After a strong week of rallies capped off a friendly USDA report, follow through support was no where to be found in the soybean complex.
PJ Conradt, Tredas, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell to discuss the technical and fundamental factors that pushed the markets lower. Conradt though is excited to see for the first time in years farmers are getting an opportunity to market their grains into healthy cash market with strong basis.
Catch the full conversation here:
OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Friday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bullish for soybeans, while the world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
USDA lowered soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year to 290 million bushels, a 170 mb decline from September that was just slightly above the lowest pre-report estimate. USDA trimmed production forecasts by 45 mb, lowered beginning stocks by 52 mb and increased exports by 75 mb.
Old-crop corn ending stocks for 2019-20 were dropped 258 mb to 1.995 bb. With those lower beginning stocks, USDA also ended with lower corn ending stocks for 2020-21, which USDA dropped 336 mb to 2.167 bb. Production was pegged at 14.722 bb, down 178 mb from the September report.
Corn yields were adjusted ever so slightly to 178.4 bushels per acre, down from 178.5 million bushels in last month’s report. Harvest acres were also cut by 1 million acres down to 82.5 million acres.
For crop demand, USDA lowered feed and residual use by 50 mb to 6.475 bb. Ethanol demand was also lowered by 50 mb to 5.05 bb. Export demand was held at 2.325 bb, the same as September.
Total use was pegged at 14.575 bb, a 100 mb drop from the September report. With ending stocks at 2.167 bb, that dropped the stocks-to-use ratio for corn down to 14.8%, compared to 17% just a month ago.
The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was pegged at $3.60 a bushel, a dime above last month’s estimate.
Globally, USDA also lowered beginning stocks 4.91 million metric tons (mmt) and lowered global production 3.56 billion bushels as well. Exports were lowered 1.56 mmt as well. Collectively, that dropped the global ending stocks down 6.34 mmt for September to 300.45 mmt.
USDA increased expected beef supply projections to 27.2 billion pounds, an increase of 90 million pounds from September estimates. Total use of beef is expected to increase by 255 million pounds during the month of October to 27.7 billion pounds. Pork supplies are estimated to decrease 80 million pounds during the month of October to 28.2 billon pounds. Export expectations of pork decreased by 200 million pounds in the October estimate at 7.3 billion pounds, moving total use to 21.8 billion pounds, based on increased domestic disappearance in the market. Estimated steer prices increased to $108.71 per cwt compared to September projections of $107.3 per cwt. Barrow and gilt prices posted the most significant projected price increase moving to $43.25 per cwt in Octobers estimate from September’s target of $39.40 per cwt.
- WASDE Report due out tomorrow
- Very dry conditions in Brazil
- Wheat pays attention to dryness in the U.S.
- A lot of volatility in the trade